Aston Villa vs Arsenal — Saturday 14:30pm
Arsenal’s defensive stability dips noticeably when Gabriel is absent. In their last 10 league matches without him, they’ve conceded seven set-piece goals and allowed opponents to generate around three shots per match from dead-ball scenarios. That’s a meaningful drop-off for a team built on structure and control.
Villa are one of the most organised set-piece sides in the division, scoring eight goals this season through rehearsed routines. If they draw enough fouls and corners, they can pressure Arsenal’s weaker zones.
Score Prediction: 1–1
Bournemouth vs Chelsea — Saturday 17:00
Bournemouth’s defeat to Everton was their poorest display under Iraola: no tempo, no intensity, no vertical passing. With four losses in five and 13 conceded, confidence looks fractured. His football demands bravery — and when two or three players take a step back, the entire structure becomes easy to play through.
Chelsea should find opportunities here and look strong value.
Score Prediction: 1–3
Everton vs Nottingham Forest — Saturday 17:00
When Dyche-led sides meet Moyes-led sides, goals tend to disappear. Both managers prefer slow tempo, territorial control, tight spaces, and low-variance football. Their last 10 meetings have produced only 15 goals — just 1.5 per game — and six ended under 1.5 total goals.
Score Prediction: 0–0
Manchester City vs Sunderland — Saturday 17:00
This matchweek historically produces strange results: the weekend immediately after a December midweek round. Heavy legs, rotation, mental fatigue — all prime for disrupted “banker” outcomes. Across the last 15 teams going off odds-on in this specific gameweek, none won by more than one goal.
City themselves scraped Luton 2–1 in this spot previously, despite being 1/9 favourites.
Sunderland have taken points from Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal this season. They’re dangerous.
Score Prediction: 1–2
Newcastle vs Burnley — Saturday 17:00
Kyle Walker’s defensive load at Burnley is significantly higher than at City. He’s defending more space, more transitions, more one-on-one moments — and the fouls reflect it: 16 in his last 10 games.
Anthony Gordon draws 2.7 fouls per 90 this season and is relentless when engaging full-backs. This matchup suits him perfectly.
Score Prediction: 3–0
Tottenham vs Brentford — Saturday 17:00
The storyline writes itself: Thomas Frank facing a Brentford side now coached by the set-piece specialist he originally hired. Frank’s Brentford were Premier League leaders in set-piece innovation — and now Keith Andrews is applying those same blueprints against him.
Spurs still have defensive inconsistencies, and Brentford can exploit transitional and set-play moments.
Score Prediction: 1–2
Leeds vs Liverpool — Saturday 19:30
Since Daniel Farke switched to a 5-3-2 against Manchester City, Leeds have outscored City and Chelsea 5–2 combined. They suddenly look organised, aggressive, and balanced — exactly the traits that trouble this current Liverpool side.
Elland Road will be buzzing for this one.
Score Prediction: 2–1
Brighton vs West Ham — Sunday 16:00
Freddie Potts has added bite and physical presence to West Ham’s midfield. He’s been fouled eight times in his last four starts and averages 1.8 fouls won per 90 over his last 31 appearances.
Brighton commit one of the highest foul counts in midfield of any Premier League side — their tempo invites contact.
Score Prediction: 1–1
Fulham vs Crystal Palace — Sunday 18:30
Marco Silva’s teams consistently peak during this stretch of the season. After the last international break and leading into Christmas, his Premier League win rate is 52% — outstanding for Fulham’s profile.
Their underlying numbers in the 1–0 win vs Sunderland were dominant:
• 24 shots
• 18 inside the box
• xG 2.16–0.17
Palace, meanwhile, are deep into a congested run: their 5th match in 16 days and the fewest rotations in the league. Fatigue is becoming visible.
Score Prediction: 2–1
Wolves vs Manchester United — Monday 22:00
Wolves have just 2 points from 14 matches and haven’t scored in 495 minutes — but sequences like this rarely continue forever. Goal droughts snap, and they often snap against sides with defensive vulnerabilities.
Manchester United away from home are exactly that:
• 12 straight away games without a clean sheet
• 24 goals conceded
• worst xGA per 90 of any ever-present PL team during that stretch
This game sets up for goals.
Score Prediction: 2–2
