We publish a pick for every match, every matchday. It’s easy to only ever talk about the ones that land. So we went back through every completed matchday since launch — Premier League, La Liga and the Betway Premiership — and checked every single pick against the actual final score. No cherry-picking the good rounds. Here’s the full scorecard.
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This covers 62 graded matches across seven completed matchdays. (Champions League Matchday 1 kicked off as we were writing this, so it’s not part of the numbers below — we’ll fold it into the next report card once it’s finished.)
The headline numbers
- 1X2 (match winner): 45% — 28 of 62 correct
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: 57% — 35 of 62 correct
- Both Teams to Score: 61% — 38 of 62 correct
- Correct score: 11% — 7 of 62 correct
- Accumulators: 3 of 7 won
None of that is a “guaranteed winner” story, and we’re not going to pretend it is. A three-way match-winner market is a coin flip with an extra side, so 45% is ahead of blind guessing but nowhere near a crystal ball. Over/Under and BTTS are both close calls (essentially two-way markets), and landing around 57-61% is a modest edge, not a lock. Correct score is a low-probability market everywhere in the world — 11% is actually in line with what you’d expect from a market this hard to call, not a red flag on its own.
Where we called it well — and where we didn’t
Split out by pick type, one pattern stands out immediately:
- Home Win picks: 48% correct
- Away Win picks: 52% correct
- Draw picks: 29% correct
Draws are our weak spot, and it’s not close. Out of 62 matches, 20 actually ended level — but we only called 4 of those correctly. Home and away picks were both close to a coin flip either way. This is a genuinely common failure mode in football tipping (draws are notoriously the hardest outcome to forecast), but “common” isn’t the same as “fine” — it’s the clearest, most specific thing we can point to and say: this is where the model needs work.
The risk index tells an even sharper story. We rate every pick’s risk from 1 (safe) to 10 (risky):
- Low risk (1-3): 91% of match-winner picks landed
- Medium risk (4-6): 35% landed
- High risk (7-10): only 2 picks graded, too small a sample to read anything into
That low-risk number is genuinely good — when we say a pick is low risk, it has been landing almost every time. The medium-risk band is the problem: it’s where most of our picks actually sit, and a 35% hit rate there is worse than what “medium confidence” should mean. Either our risk scoring is too generous in the middle of the scale, or that band of matches is inherently this unpredictable and more of them belong in the “high risk” bucket instead. We’re treating this as the single biggest thing to fix before the next report.
By competition
- Premier League: 47% match-winner accuracy across 30 graded matches
- Betway Premiership (PSL): 50% across 16 matches
- La Liga: 38% across 16 matches
La Liga is our softest league so far. Sixteen matches is a small sample to draw firm conclusions from, but it’s worth watching over the next few rounds rather than assuming it’s noise.
The accumulators
Three of our seven suggested accumulators actually won:
- ✅ La Liga Midweek Fixtures: Real Madrid + Barcelona both won
- ✅ Premier League Matchweek 2: Man City + Arsenal both won
- ✅ PSL Round 5: Orlando Pirates + Sundowns + Kaizer Chiefs all won
- ❌ Premier League Matchweek 1 (4-fold): lost on one leg — Man Utd lost at Hull City
- ❌ PSL Round 4 (2-fold): lost — Milford drew instead of winning
- ❌ Premier League Matchweek 3 (3-fold): lost on one leg — Hull City drew instead of winning
- ❌ La Liga Matchday 4 (3-fold): lost — two of three favourites didn’t win
A 3-fold accumulator needs all three picks to land, so even three genuinely solid single-match picks compound into a much longer shot together — that’s just how parlays work, not a flaw unique to us. But two of our four losing accas were sunk by the same team (Hull City) failing to win a match we’d rated as a home banker, which lines up with the medium-risk calibration issue above.
What we’re changing
- Re-checking how we score medium risk. If a “medium risk” tag is landing at 35%, the label isn’t doing its job. We’re revisiting how that middle band gets assigned.
- More caution on draws. We’ll be slower to rule out a draw outright, especially in tightly-matched fixtures where the data doesn’t clearly favour either side.
- Keeping the accumulators shorter where conviction is genuinely high, rather than stretching a strong 2-pick combination into a shakier 3- or 4-fold just to offer bigger odds.
- Publishing this again next month, with Champions League included and last month’s numbers alongside it, so it’s easy to see whether any of this actually moved the needle.
If you want to follow the picks (and hold us to this), the app is the easiest way to do it:
10bet Soccer Betting Tips on Google Play
A quick reminder
This app is built for users of legal gambling age in their jurisdiction (18+). Tips are guidance, not guarantees — as the numbers above show plainly, a real share of them don’t land. The app links out to 10bet for placing bets; it doesn’t process bets, payments, or account registrations itself. Please gamble responsibly.
Questions or feedback? Get in touch at daniel.d@10.marketing.
