Opta Analyst published their 2026 World Cup tournament probabilities ten days before the boys kick off in Mexico City. The numbers are the cleanest signal you will get before the tournament starts. They are also full of surprises, including who the model thinks is going to win it, where Mexico actually ranks, and which African nation has the best chance of a long run.
This is the full top 20, in order, with the angles SA bettors should be reading into the data. Not predictions, probabilities. Two very different things, and confusing them is the fastest way to lose your outright bet.
Quick answer: Opta’s model has Spain as favourites at 16.1% to win the tournament, followed by France (13.0%), England (11.2%) and Argentina (10.4%). The defending champions are fourth, not first. The hosts Mexico sit 20th. Norway are in the top 10 in their first World Cup since 1998.
Bafana Bafana are not in the model’s top 20. Mexico are the only Group A team that is.
Browse current outright odds Register on 10bet
The full top 20 ranking
Opta’s model produces a probability for each team to reach the quarter-finals, the semi-finals, the final, and to lift the trophy. The 20 sides below are ordered by winner probability. Source: Opta Analyst, dated 1 June 2026.
| # | Team | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 52.1% | 39.0% | 25.6% | 16.1% |
| 2 | France | 47.9% | 33.4% | 21.2% | 13.0% |
| 3 | England | 47.7% | 30.3% | 19.0% | 11.2% |
| 4 | Argentina | 45.2% | 30.3% | 18.1% | 10.4% |
| 5 | Portugal | 40.2% | 23.7% | 13.0% | 7.0% |
| 6 | Brazil | 38.2% | 22.1% | 12.3% | 6.6% |
| 7 | Germany | 33.8% | 20.2% | 10.6% | 5.1% |
| 8 | Netherlands | 29.5% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 3.6% |
| 9 | Norway | 27.2% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| 10 | Belgium | 28.9% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| 11 | Colombia | 22.0% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| 12 | Morocco | 23.5% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| 13 | Uruguay | 20.7% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 14 | Switzerland | 23.7% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 15 | Croatia | 18.6% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| 16 | Ecuador | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 17 | Japan | 17.0% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 18 | United States | 19.4% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Senegal | 14.2% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 20 | Mexico | 24.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
Read the columns left-to-right and you can see which teams the model thinks have the route to the trophy versus which teams are projected to be eliminated earlier. Mexico’s row is the most interesting one on the whole table, and we will get to it.
The top of the board: Spain, France, England, Argentina
Spain are the favourites. Not France, not Argentina, not Brazil. The model gives La Roja a 16.1% chance to win the tournament, comfortably ahead of France’s 13.0%. Spain are also the only team above a 50% chance to make the quarter-finals at all, at 52.1%.
The case for Spain is well documented at this point. They won Euro 2024 with a generation of players (Yamal, Pedri, Olmo, Williams) who are all still in their athletic prime two years on. They control midfield, they create from wide, they finish at multiple positions, and they have the kind of coach (Luis de la Fuente) who reads tournaments cleanly.
The case for France is the more conventional one. Mbappé still scores at a rate nobody in the squad list can match. The defensive pairings have depth. France have been in two of the last three World Cup finals and the model respects the pattern.
England at third is the more surprising read. Opta’s model rates England’s individual squad highly and gives them an easier projected path through the bracket than Argentina. The bookmakers tend to be less generous, which is where some value sits on the outright board for English value-seekers.
Argentina dropping to fourth has a single explanation: they are the defending champions and the model has built in some regression. Messi is still in the squad. The model just thinks the gap between Argentina and the chasers has narrowed.
The defending champions are fourth, not first. That single fact tells you everything about how the 2026 World Cup is being read by the analytical community ten days out.
The Norway surprise (and Haaland’s first World Cup)
Norway sit ninth in the model. Their first World Cup since 1998. A 3.5% chance to win the tournament, ahead of Belgium and just behind the Netherlands.
This is the kind of placing that almost has to be about one player. Erling Haaland gets his first World Cup at 25, in his peak years, in a squad built specifically to feed him. The model is giving Norway a 27.2% chance to reach the quarter-finals, which means it does not see them as a group-stage exit. That is a strong read for a side that has not been to a World Cup in nearly three decades.
For SA bettors, Norway is the most interesting outright at the longer end of the board. The 3.5% winner probability is roughly the same as 28-1 in implied odds, but bookmaker prices on Norway are often double that or longer because the betting public has not bought in yet.
The Mexico host paradox
Mexico, at 20th, are the most analytically interesting team in the entire top 20.
Their probabilities, read across the row, tell a strange story:
- Reach the quarter-finals: 24.2% (the fourth-highest QF probability in the whole table)
- Reach the semi-finals: 8.4% (a significant drop)
- Reach the final: 3.0% (the second-lowest in the top 20)
- Win the tournament: 1.0% (tied with Senegal at the bottom of the top 20)
What the model is saying: Mexico are likely to navigate Group A, likely to win their last-16 match (the new 48-team format gives them a softer round-of-32 too), and likely to be eliminated in the quarter-finals. That projection is consistent with every World Cup Mexico have ever played. Seventeen tournaments, eight quarter-final appearances, zero semi-finals. The model has read the ceiling.
If you want a market that almost perfectly captures the Mexico story, “Mexico to reach the quarter-finals but not the semi-finals” is the bet the data is telling you to consider. The bookmaker pricing on that combination is rarely as tight as the model suggests it should be.
African nations in the model: Morocco leads, Senegal follows
Two African nations make Opta’s top 20.
Morocco at 12th (1.9% winner) is the highest. They are the only African team that has reached a World Cup semi-final, and the model has not forgotten the 2022 run. Their 23.5% chance to make the quarter-finals is higher than Belgium, Switzerland, Croatia and the United States, all of whom rank lower in the winner column but with different bracket projections.
Senegal at 19th (1.0% winner) carries the second-strongest African profile. The model gives them a 14.2% chance to reach the quarter-finals.
Notably absent from the top 20: every other African nation, including Nigeria (didn’t qualify), Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, and Bafana Bafana. The model says the African outright dream this year sits with Morocco. The African dark-horse bet, with longer odds, is Senegal.
What it means for Bafana’s Group A
This is where SA bettors should pay the closest attention.
Mexico are 20th in Opta’s full top-20 ranking. The Czech Republic and South Korea do not appear in the top 20 at all. Bafana also do not appear. So of the four teams in Group A:
- Mexico have a model-implied 24.2% chance to reach the quarter-finals
- Czech Republic: not ranked in the top 20
- South Korea: not ranked in the top 20
- Bafana: not ranked in the top 20
What that means in practice: Mexico are the only team in Group A that the model rates as a serious tournament outsider. The other three teams (including Bafana) are roughly in the same bucket as far as the model is concerned. That is a significant read for Bafana fans because it means qualification from the group, while difficult, is not unreachable.
Three of the four Group A teams sit outside Opta’s top 20. Bafana are not the outlier in this group. They are one of three sides fighting for the same outcome.
Bafana’s path to the last 32 (under the new 48-team format, two automatic plus best third-placed sides) runs through finding at least four points from three games. The Czech Republic match on 18 June is the one where the model implies the closest contest.
Model vs the bookmakers: where they agree and disagree
The model and the bookmakers agree on the big picture. Spain are the favourites. France, England and Argentina form the chasing pack. Brazil sit a tier below their usual reputation. Mexico are way down the board despite being host.
Where they disagree:
- England. Opta has them third. Many bookmakers price them as fourth or fifth, behind Argentina and Brazil. The model is more generous than the market.
- Norway. Opta places them ninth. Bookmaker outright prices tend to put them outside the top 12 on implied probability. The Haaland factor is harder to model than to feel, and the model leans into it.
- Mexico. The model has them at 20th with a 1% winner probability. Bookmaker prices reflect home advantage and the FIFA ranking, so they sit closer to mid-table on most outright boards. The model is colder on the hosts than the market.
- Morocco. Opta at 12th. Bookmaker prices vary widely on Morocco, some treating them like a 6th-place side, others like a 20th-place side. The model finds a middle ground.
None of this guarantees value. Both the model and the market can be wrong in the same direction. But when the model and the market disagree, the gap is often where SA bettors find the cleanest outright punts.
The angles SA bettors should be spotting
Outright winner
Spain (16.1% per model) are the favourites. The interesting outrights from the model’s perspective sit at 5th to 9th: Portugal, Brazil, Germany, Netherlands, Norway. Each carries a 3.5% to 7% probability, which lines up with implied odds between 14.00 and 28.00. If the bookmaker price on any of those is meaningfully longer than that range, the model is suggesting value.
Reach the final
“To reach the final” is one of the friendliest outright markets for a small budget. Spain at 25.6%, France at 21.2%, England at 19%. All three are stronger probabilities than the bookmaker prices typically reflect on the “to reach final” market, because the bookies factor in implied second-half tournament drama.
African dark horse
Morocco (12th, 1.9%) is the model’s African outright pick. Senegal (19th, 1.0%) is the dark-horse African punt. Bafana fans backing Morocco get the realistic African angle. Bafana fans backing Senegal get the romantic one.
Group A markets
Mexico to top Group A is the cleanest call. Bafana to qualify as third-placed side is the SA-friendly outsider angle. Bafana to draw at least one Group A match is the underrated medium-priced market.
Real talk: a probability model is a snapshot, not a tip. Opta’s numbers move every time a squad is finalised, a key player picks up an injury, or a friendly result lands. Always check the latest odds before placing a bet. Markets may change.
See current winner odds Open the Bafana page
FAQs
Who is favourite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to Opta?
Spain. Opta Analyst’s model (dated 1 June 2026) gives Spain a 16.1% probability to lift the trophy, ahead of France at 13.0%, England at 11.2% and the defending champions Argentina at 10.4%.
How many African nations are in Opta’s top 20?
Two. Morocco at 12th (1.9% winner probability) and Senegal at 19th (1.0%). No other African nation, including Bafana Bafana, makes the model’s top 20.
What does Opta say about Mexico’s chances as hosts?
Opta gives Mexico a 24.2% chance to reach the quarter-finals (the fourth-highest in the table) but only a 1% chance to win the tournament. The model is reflecting Mexico’s historical ceiling: 17 World Cups, 8 quarter-final appearances, 0 semi-finals.
Where is Bafana Bafana in Opta’s predictions?
Bafana do not appear in Opta’s top 20. The Czech Republic and South Korea, two of Bafana’s three Group A opponents, are also outside the top 20. Mexico are the only Group A team in the ranking.
Is Norway really better than Belgium in Opta’s model?
Yes. Norway sit ninth (3.5% winner probability) and Belgium tenth (2.4%) in the model. Norway have a higher semi-final and final probability, largely on the back of Erling Haaland and a squad shape that the model rates above Belgium’s current rebuild.
Where can I bet on the 2026 World Cup outrights in South Africa?
On any licensed SA operator. 10bet runs a dedicated World Cup 2026 hub with outright winner markets, top scorer markets, group winner markets, and the full match-by-match odds board. Outright markets are open now and close once the final whistle of the tournament blows.
Should I bet on Spain to win the World Cup based on Opta’s model?
The model says Spain are the favourites at 16.1%. A 16.1% implied probability translates to roughly 6.20 in decimal odds. If a bookmaker is offering longer odds than 6.20 on Spain to win, the model is suggesting value. If shorter, the market is more confident than the model. Always check the latest odds on the World Cup hub before placing.
Are Opta’s predictions guaranteed to be right?
No. Opta produce probabilities based on team strength, squad data and bracket simulation, not predictions. A 16.1% favourite (Spain) wins about one time in six in the long run. The other five times, a different team lifts the trophy. The model is a useful read, not a tip.
Spain are the favourites, Norway are the surprise, Mexico are the paradox, Bafana are outside the top 20 but not alone in their group. Pick your market, set your budget, and back the team you actually believe in.Browse winner oddsRegister on 10bet
For more guides, read the Bafana Bafana 2026 World Cup profile, the Mexico host-nation profile, Lorenz Köhler’s predicted Bafana XI on The Bettor Pod, and the full 10bet World Cup 2026 hub tour. Data source: Opta Analyst, 1 June 2026.
